Managing
technical uncertainties
Statistics,
RAMS
& Quality Management
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Event
Tree Analysis
Event tree analysis begins where
fault tree analysis ends: At the top event. While fault tree analysis
is used for assessing potential dangerous scenarios within the responsibility of a
safety function, event tree analysis works similar, however for
potential consequences if the safety
function fails.
The twin engine aircraft example may give some insight (see also fault tree analysis and reliability
block diagrams).
This example is a little bit
different compared to the twin engine example in other paragraphs.
Instead of a crash landing, the starting point is a single engine failure. This is
because fault trees with top
event = crash landing don't
exist in practice,
whereas fault trees with top event = engine failure do exist.
Event tree calculation yields the probability distribution over various
consequences. In the above example, the result may look like this:
P(regular landing) given one engine failed = 0,99999
P(successful emergency
landing) given one engine failed = 0,000005
P(crash landing) given
one engine failed = 0,000005
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